What's a slight risk?

The SWODY1 (severe weather outlook day 1) forecast is produced by the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. Of course, you know them well as the originators of convective watches (tornado & severe thunderstorm).

The SWODY1 is originated daily at 0600 Zulu (Greenwich Mean Time) and updated at 1300, 1630, 2000, and 0100 Zulu (right now, it's 0240 Z = 9:40PM). The SWODY2 (day 2 outlook) is issued at 0800 & 1730 Zulu, and it covers the next day's possible events.

As posted earlier, the mid-south is under a Slight Risk today. Each risk category assumes an average area of 50,000 square miles. See today's risk at http://www.spc.noaa.gov

General Thunderstorm Risk = lowest risk category; usually discussed in the forecast text

Slight Risk = risk for 3 to 5 tornadoes; risk for 5-29 hail events (size at least one inch); risk for 5-29 wind events (severe wind levels; >57mph)

Moderate Risk = risk for 6-19 tornadoes; risk for at least 30 hail and/or wind events

High Risk = risk for at least tornadoes, of which 2 or more are expected to be EF-3 or greater; risk of at least 50 hail and/or wind events; risk for major severe weather outbreak